LATEST ECONOMIC BRIEFINGS
EMIRATES: DUBAI | 30.07.2010
Dubai’s capital markets appear to be in for significant change with plans unveiled to establish a second-tier stock exchange coming hot on the heels of Dubai Financial Market (DFM) – the government-administered domestic bourse – and the DIFC-based NASDAQ Dubai’s move to formally link their trading platforms. All of this is happening as speculation of a merger between the bourses of Dubai and Abu Dhabi mounts.
ALGERIE | 30.07.2010
Les efforts importants déployés par l’Algérie pour augmenter la production céréalière commencent à porter leurs fruits, dans la mesure où les récoltes record de l’année dernière et les rendements importants de 2010 aideront à réduire les coûts d’importation et à créer des emplois sûrs dans les zones rurales. Cependant, l’objectif de l’autonomie alimentaire fixé par le pays reste encore bien éloigné.
SENEGAL | 30.07.2010
Le Sénégal est en train de devenir un leader en matière de développement de l’énergie solaire comme énergie de l’avenir, et ce, à la fois à l’échelle nationale et continentale. Pour y parvenir, le pays veut augmenter l’utilisation des énergies renouvelables afin de surmonter ses propres manques et promouvoir un grand programme international ayant pour but de mettre fin à la dépendance de l’Afrique de l’Ouest à l’égard des combustibles fossiles.
BULGARIA | 30.07.2010
Though Bulgaria’s economy is likely to remain in the slow lane for the rest of this year, the country’s banking sector continues to show resilience in the face of global economic contraction. There are concerns, however, that increasing levels of bad loans carried by some lenders could add to pressures on the sector.
OMAN | 28.07.2010
A raft of new agreements recently signed by the Ministry of Transport and Communications will see a significant round of investment in Oman’s transport infrastructure. The 15 agreements, signed earlier in July, cover projects in land, sea and air infrastructure and are worth a total of OR136.9m ($355.9m).
COUNTRY COVERAGE
Morocco Plans Major Tourism Boom
Morocco, Volume 8
08.07.2003
08.07.2003
The government's long term project to bring 10m tourists annually to the country by 2010 came under scrutiny recently, as recent cyclical and political events raised concerns. However, many tourism professionals remain confident of reaching the target, as OBG found out at a recent debate hosted by the American Chamber of Commerce. There, Tourism Minister Adil Douiri presented the strategies envisaged for Moroccan tourism after September 11.
The 2010 plan envisages an increase from an estimated 4.5m tourists a year presently to 10m, with the ultimate aim being to make tourism the primary foreign exchange earner for the economy (creating USD48bn over ten years, creating 600 000 new jobs and growing annually GDP by 8.5%).
Six areas have been identified for the project: tripling the tourist infrastructure (from 80 000 to 230 000 beds); liberalising the aviation sector and integrating it better with the hotel infrastructure; filling the hotels and training an additional 70 000 professionals; improved marketing, specifically by the national tourism office; improving the tourist environment; and institutional changes to improve efficiency and bring in more public-private partnerships (notably the creation of regional tourist associations - Centre Regional de Tourisme).
An ambitious and far-reaching programme which is a good cause for optimism, especially given Morocco's well known natural and cultural assets. With hundreds of miles of coastline, the Atlas and Rif mountain ranges, the anti-Atlas desert regions, the historic cities of Fès, Marrakesh, Tangiers, Rabat, Essaouira and Ouarzazate - the list is indeed impressive.
Perhaps the most important element is the planned construction of five large coastal resorts - Plage Blanche, Mogador, El Haouzia, Khémis Sahel, Saîda and Taghazout - which are all set to begin this year. The government is committed to providing the entire external infrastructure, while the land is developed by private developers. Such huge projects will see a large increase in sun and sea tourism.
Minister Douiri said that tourist receipts will hopefully be maintained at EUR800 per foreign tourist. The point here being that current per tourist figures are quite healthy, and the plan is to avoid seeing a decline in these figures - there is little interest in bringing in more tourists if the spending per person is diminished. It is worth noting that the Minister on two occasions stated his aversion to following the Tunisian model. By this he was referring to Tunisia's tourism boom of the 1990s, which saw a massive increase in capacity without a concomitant increase in expertise and auxiliary services - resulting in rather modest tourist receipts.
This again is where Morocco's tourist plan needs to be finely guided, as the role of tourist operators (TOs) needs to be carefully examined. Part of the marketing strategy involves closer collaboration with international TOs like TUI, ACCOR, and Jetair. As Minister Douiri put it, tourists make their decisions not in front of the telly so much as at the travel agents, and in this respect, closer co-operation with TOs should prove an efficient and indirect way to sell the Morocco destination abroad.
At the same time, the industry will have to be careful not to become too beholden to TOs to bring in tourists, as any cyclical downturns or regional political disturbances could engender high volatility in the number of arrivals. It will also be necessary to resist any homogenisation of the Morocco image into just another 'sun & sea' package destination for sun-starved northerners. Crucial in this respect is the alternative attractions segment of the market - getting beach tourists in Agadir, for example, to explore the cultural bonanza that is Marrakesh.
As far as the source markets are concerned, the Minister said he was not really interested in diversification into unexplored markets, citing a lack of resources and the higher costs involved. Instead he advocated a 'hierarchisation' of the tourist markets - with a focus on the core markets first (France, Spain, Germany, possibly the UK and Italy), and focusing on the less common markets afterwards.
It is worth noting that almost half the tourists who arrive here each year are Moroccans living abroad (known locally as MREs, Marocains Residents à l'Etranger). The government is keen to encourage MREs to act more like tourists - that is, stay at hotels and visit sites - indeed the latest edition of TelQuel has an extensive report aimed at this market, with listings of nice places that MREs might want to stay. To these ends, there is currently a national summertime programme with 50% reductions on transport and hotels for Moroccans and MREs. Nonetheless it seems perhaps wishful thinking: most MREs will probably continue to return and stay with the family - home cooking is still the best.
Niche tourism is a fashionable term, and its discourse is no less prevalent in Morocco. From USAID projects currently underway to elaborate various ecotourism circuits in the interior to the ever-fashionable golf tourism, Morocco has plenty of potential to attract the high-end market.
Fès is one fine illustration. The general consensus is that this unique city is poorly exploited, and efforts are underway to make its name resonate as much as Florence, Granada, or Cordoba. The Barcelona example is often cited, a city that has managed to transform itself from northern industrial port to the city of Gaudi and Picasso.
Finally the air industry sector will need to be shaken up. This is of course a difficult job at a time when the global air industry is facing unprecedented shortfalls. The national air carrier (RAM, Royal Air Maroc) is no different, being loath to give up its privileges on the Morocco destination. Despite talk of implementing an 'open skies' policy, action is still slow, perhaps understandably since RAM is likely to be keen on a smaller slice of a growing rather than a shrinking cake. This notwithstanding, the benefits of allowing in low cost carriers like Easyjet and Ryanair (whose model is revolutionising the European travel market) is obvious.
So the signs and plans are all in all good, underlying the bullish sentiment. However, tourist numbers are likely to be hit in the aftermath of the recent terrorist attacks. Congress bookings have dropped, and total nights spent fell by 13% y-o-y in May - primarily in the last fortnight. Fortunately, the attacks came in the low tourist season, when MREs and familiar tourists are more common, allowing for a recovery in Morocco's reputation when the big spending winter tourists arrive.
According to La Vie éco, hotel professionals actually estimated a 35/40% hotel occupancy drop in the first five months, compared to the same period in 2001. The cyclical downturn is thus quite serious. Yet, with TOs confirming their continued commitment to Morocco, and additional hotel investments of MAD581m (approximately EUR58m) signed as recently as July 1, the optimism is not really unfounded.
Morocco has plenty to offer, and if the proliferation of summer festivals is anything to go by, tourists who do make the journey will have plenty of fun and games to lose themselves in. Around 15 festivals are up and running so far, and it’s only the start of July. The Gnaoua music festival in Essaouira actually managed to attract a record number of visitors this year - estimated at 300 000 - despite coming so soon after the tragedies in May.
The 2010 plan envisages an increase from an estimated 4.5m tourists a year presently to 10m, with the ultimate aim being to make tourism the primary foreign exchange earner for the economy (creating USD48bn over ten years, creating 600 000 new jobs and growing annually GDP by 8.5%).
Six areas have been identified for the project: tripling the tourist infrastructure (from 80 000 to 230 000 beds); liberalising the aviation sector and integrating it better with the hotel infrastructure; filling the hotels and training an additional 70 000 professionals; improved marketing, specifically by the national tourism office; improving the tourist environment; and institutional changes to improve efficiency and bring in more public-private partnerships (notably the creation of regional tourist associations - Centre Regional de Tourisme).
An ambitious and far-reaching programme which is a good cause for optimism, especially given Morocco's well known natural and cultural assets. With hundreds of miles of coastline, the Atlas and Rif mountain ranges, the anti-Atlas desert regions, the historic cities of Fès, Marrakesh, Tangiers, Rabat, Essaouira and Ouarzazate - the list is indeed impressive.
Perhaps the most important element is the planned construction of five large coastal resorts - Plage Blanche, Mogador, El Haouzia, Khémis Sahel, Saîda and Taghazout - which are all set to begin this year. The government is committed to providing the entire external infrastructure, while the land is developed by private developers. Such huge projects will see a large increase in sun and sea tourism.
Minister Douiri said that tourist receipts will hopefully be maintained at EUR800 per foreign tourist. The point here being that current per tourist figures are quite healthy, and the plan is to avoid seeing a decline in these figures - there is little interest in bringing in more tourists if the spending per person is diminished. It is worth noting that the Minister on two occasions stated his aversion to following the Tunisian model. By this he was referring to Tunisia's tourism boom of the 1990s, which saw a massive increase in capacity without a concomitant increase in expertise and auxiliary services - resulting in rather modest tourist receipts.
This again is where Morocco's tourist plan needs to be finely guided, as the role of tourist operators (TOs) needs to be carefully examined. Part of the marketing strategy involves closer collaboration with international TOs like TUI, ACCOR, and Jetair. As Minister Douiri put it, tourists make their decisions not in front of the telly so much as at the travel agents, and in this respect, closer co-operation with TOs should prove an efficient and indirect way to sell the Morocco destination abroad.
At the same time, the industry will have to be careful not to become too beholden to TOs to bring in tourists, as any cyclical downturns or regional political disturbances could engender high volatility in the number of arrivals. It will also be necessary to resist any homogenisation of the Morocco image into just another 'sun & sea' package destination for sun-starved northerners. Crucial in this respect is the alternative attractions segment of the market - getting beach tourists in Agadir, for example, to explore the cultural bonanza that is Marrakesh.
As far as the source markets are concerned, the Minister said he was not really interested in diversification into unexplored markets, citing a lack of resources and the higher costs involved. Instead he advocated a 'hierarchisation' of the tourist markets - with a focus on the core markets first (France, Spain, Germany, possibly the UK and Italy), and focusing on the less common markets afterwards.
It is worth noting that almost half the tourists who arrive here each year are Moroccans living abroad (known locally as MREs, Marocains Residents à l'Etranger). The government is keen to encourage MREs to act more like tourists - that is, stay at hotels and visit sites - indeed the latest edition of TelQuel has an extensive report aimed at this market, with listings of nice places that MREs might want to stay. To these ends, there is currently a national summertime programme with 50% reductions on transport and hotels for Moroccans and MREs. Nonetheless it seems perhaps wishful thinking: most MREs will probably continue to return and stay with the family - home cooking is still the best.
Niche tourism is a fashionable term, and its discourse is no less prevalent in Morocco. From USAID projects currently underway to elaborate various ecotourism circuits in the interior to the ever-fashionable golf tourism, Morocco has plenty of potential to attract the high-end market.
Fès is one fine illustration. The general consensus is that this unique city is poorly exploited, and efforts are underway to make its name resonate as much as Florence, Granada, or Cordoba. The Barcelona example is often cited, a city that has managed to transform itself from northern industrial port to the city of Gaudi and Picasso.
Finally the air industry sector will need to be shaken up. This is of course a difficult job at a time when the global air industry is facing unprecedented shortfalls. The national air carrier (RAM, Royal Air Maroc) is no different, being loath to give up its privileges on the Morocco destination. Despite talk of implementing an 'open skies' policy, action is still slow, perhaps understandably since RAM is likely to be keen on a smaller slice of a growing rather than a shrinking cake. This notwithstanding, the benefits of allowing in low cost carriers like Easyjet and Ryanair (whose model is revolutionising the European travel market) is obvious.
So the signs and plans are all in all good, underlying the bullish sentiment. However, tourist numbers are likely to be hit in the aftermath of the recent terrorist attacks. Congress bookings have dropped, and total nights spent fell by 13% y-o-y in May - primarily in the last fortnight. Fortunately, the attacks came in the low tourist season, when MREs and familiar tourists are more common, allowing for a recovery in Morocco's reputation when the big spending winter tourists arrive.
According to La Vie éco, hotel professionals actually estimated a 35/40% hotel occupancy drop in the first five months, compared to the same period in 2001. The cyclical downturn is thus quite serious. Yet, with TOs confirming their continued commitment to Morocco, and additional hotel investments of MAD581m (approximately EUR58m) signed as recently as July 1, the optimism is not really unfounded.
Morocco has plenty to offer, and if the proliferation of summer festivals is anything to go by, tourists who do make the journey will have plenty of fun and games to lose themselves in. Around 15 festivals are up and running so far, and it’s only the start of July. The Gnaoua music festival in Essaouira actually managed to attract a record number of visitors this year - estimated at 300 000 - despite coming so soon after the tragedies in May.
