Qatar handling recent challenges in energy sector

 

Home to the world’s largest non-associated natural gas field and significant oil reserves, Qatar is a leading player in the global energy market. It is also at the forefront of the international gas-to-liquids (GTL) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) industries, as well as fast becoming a major centre for research and development (R&D) in hydrocarbons. A member of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Qatar is also an important influencer in world energy markets, with 2015 seeing it take over the rotating annual presidency of the Organisation of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries. The sector still plays the lead role in the country’s economy, even as efforts to diversify continue.

The industry does face challenges, however. Among these are the steep decline in oil prices that began in 2014; increasing demand for energy from domestic sources as Qatar develops rapidly; and the management of a new wave of investment in existing fields, necessary in order to maintain and even expand current output levels, given a continuing moratorium on some sections of the North Field. Nonetheless, with the sector operating on such an epic scale – Qatar’s gas reserves alone could last well into the 22nd century at 2012 levels of production – and the commitment of international and local giants to its continued development, such challenges seem unlikely to alter Qatar’s leading role in the hydrocarbons industry.

QATAR PETROLEUM: The key organisation in hydrocarbons is Qatar Petroleum (QP), a state-owned firm founded in 1974, which, under the Qatar Petroleum Law, operates all oil and gas activity, both upstream and downstream. QP’s chairman is the minister of energy and industry, Mohammed bin Saleh Al Sada. The minister of economy and commerce, Sheikh Ahmed bin Jassim bin Mohamed Al Thani, is vice-chairman, and Ali Shareef Al Emadi – the minister of finance – also sits on the company’s board, illustrating the vital importance of QP to Qatar’s economy. In September 2014 Saad Sherida Al Kaabi was appointed as the new managing director of QP. His appointment indicated a shift in strategy for the company and unofficially separated the Ministry of Energy and Industry from QP, which had previously functioned almost as one entity. According to Qatar National Bank (QNB), the oil and gas sector was responsible for QR95bn ($26bn) of the country’s total nominal GDP of QR193bn ($53bn) in the third quarter of 2014, or 49%.

QP has an extensive portfolio, too. Upstream, it has exploration- and production-sharing agreements (EPSAs) and development- and production-sharing agreements (DPSAs) with a number of international oil companies (IOCs), such as ExxonMobil, Maersk Oil, Occidental, Shell Qatar, Total and Wintershall. According to the US Energy Information Agency (EIA), around half of the country’s oil production comes from IOCs via production-sharing agreements. QP also owns and operates three fields – the onshore Dukhan, and the offshore Maydan Mahzam and Bul Hanine.

HIGH STAKES: QP is also a shareholder in the consortium that owns and operates Qatargas, the country’s LNG pioneer. Other members of the consortium are Total, ExxonMobil, Mitsui & Co, Marubeni Corporation, ConocoPhillips, Shell, Idemitsu Kosan and Cosmo Oil. QP has a further 70% stake in RasGas Company ( RasGas), Qatar’s second LNG producer, with the remaining 30% held by ExxonMobil. Qatargas has four LNG ventures and RasGas three, all with their own ownership structures, but with QP having the majority stake in each. Qatargas and RasGas also own and operate their own pipeline networks, with international shipping of LNG cargoes coming under the remit of Qatar Gas Transport Company (Nakilat), in which QP has a 5% share. For repair and maintenance, Nakilat signed with Keppel to establish Nakilat-Keppel Offshore & Marine (N-KOM), which began operations in 2010.

QP is also a partner in both the Pearl and Oryx GTL projects, with Shell in the former and Sasol in the latter. QP has 100% ownership of Qatar Refinery and a 51% stake in Laffan Refinery, the country’s first condensate facility and one of the world’s largest.

SUBSIDIARIES: The company also has a growing international presence. Qatar Petroleum International (QPI) is a wholly owned subsidiary of QP and has made major investments around the world since its establishment in 2006. These include upstream partnerships with Centrica in Canada, a 20% working interest in exploration activities with Total E&P and Sonatrach in Mauritania, and a partnership with Total E&P Congo in a number of exploration and production licences there.

Downstream, QPI has a joint venture with Shell in a petrochemicals project in Singapore, investments in Egypt’s Arab Refining Company, a collaboration to establish a petrochemicals facility in Vietnam, and a partnership with Shell and PetroChina to build an integrated refining and manufacturing complex in China, among other ventures. In LNG, QPI has co-ownership arrangements with import terminals in the UK, Italy and the US; is a partner in the UK’s South Hook Power CoGeneration Project; and has power assets in Greece in partnership with GEK Terna, among other investments. In January 2015 it was announced that QPI would merge with QP in March in order to ensure efficient use of resources, with the employees, assets and projects of QPI being shifted to QP.

A further QP subsidiary is Qatar Intermediate Industries, which has one joint venture with United Development Company called Seef Limited, which produces linear alkyl benzene; another with Qatar Fertilizer Company (QAFCO) called Qatar Melamine Company; and a third with Air Liquide. QP is also the majority shareholder in Industries Qatar (IQ), which in turn has an 80% stake in Qatar Petrochemical Company (QAPCO), with the remaining 20% belonging to Total. QAPCO is involved in three petrochemical joint ventures: the $1.2bn Qatofin Company, a linear low-density polyethylene project in which it has a 63% stake (QP also has a direct 1% stake in Qatofin); Qatar Vinyl Company; and Qatar Plastic Products Company. IQ also has a 50% stake in Qatar Fuel Additives Company, a 75% stake in QAFCO and full ownership of Qatar Steel.

Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Company is a QP group company that holds most of QP’s interests in three petrochemical companies: Qatar Chemical Company, Qatar Chemical Company II and Qatar Vinyl. Gulf International Services is another QP subsidiary and has investments in both national and international oil and gas industries, including well support services, offshore and onshore drilling services, helicopter maintenance and transportation services, insurance and reinsurance services. Lastly, Al Shaheen Holding was established as a QP subsidiary in 2006 as an energy services provider through the following portfolio companies: Al Shaheen Weatherford, Pli Pipeline Solutions and Al Shaheen GE Services.

SALES & MARKETING: Another key outfit in the oil and gas sector is Qatar Chemical and Petrochemical Marketing and Distribution Company, known as Muntajat, which was established following an Emiri decree in 2012 and began operations in 2013. Muntajat has exclusive rights to purchase, market, sell and distribute all the chemical and petrochemical products manufactured in Qatar. It thus brings under one roof all the previous entities charged with marketing particular product lines, thus enabling cross-fertilisation between the various institutions and products.

In terms of the marketing and sale of regulated products, including liquefied petroleum gas, condensates, refined products (gasoline, naptha and diesel), sulphur, certain gas-to-liquids, and non-regulated products including all crude oil produced, Qatar International Petroleum Marketing Company, known as Tasweeq, is the key body.

GOING THROUGH REORGANISATION: In 2014 QP began a period of internal reorganisation, with the replacement of directors leading to greater government representation. This highlights a shift to a new phase in QP’s development after years of ramping up activity. Now the emphasis is on re-injecting government surpluses to create new assets, with the necessary tighter liaison between planning and finance requiring a higher level of government presence.

Investments in hard and soft infrastructure at home and in international assets – not only in oil and gas – are therefore being pursued vigorously. The latter has involved investments in areas such as property, as well as oil-and-gas-related projects. QP is also looking not just to acquire minority stakes in existing enterprises, but to establish a platform of talent able to develop fields and commercialise resources – albeit still in partnership with others for now. This represents a quantum shift for the domestic industry, showing that QP is determined to further develop the quality of its overseas commitments. In this, QPI’s 2013 investment in Total’s Congo operations is significant, as it was the first investment made in an offshore field abroad. On a governmental level, the Ministry of Energy and Industry has an important role in integrating the oil and gas sector with the industrial development of the country as a whole. In this it works closely in line with Qatar National Vision 2030 (the state’s long-term development plan), Qatar National Development Strategy 2011-2016, and with the Department of Industrial Development, the Department of Industrial Estates and other related government entities. The Ministry of Environment also has a role, particularly in issuing approvals for the construction of pipelines and other infrastructure. The overall regulation for the sector is the 2007 Natural Resources Law, which declares all oil and gas – as well as other minerals – in Qatar property of the state. Rights to explore and develop are usually dispersed via EPSAs and DPSAs with QP, generally valid for 25-year periods, although exact details are generally kept outside the public domain. For LNG projects, QP typically issues development and fiscal agreements.

LOOKING AT OIL: According to BP’s “Statistical Review of World Energy 2014”, Qatar had proven oil reserves of 25.1bn barrels, or 1.5% of global proven reserves (including crude oil, gas condensates and natural gas liquids). Production stood at 1.995m barrels per day (bpd), giving a reserves-to-production (R/P) ratio of 34.4, meaning 34.4 years of reserves at year-end 2013 levels of output. Domestic consumption of oil stood at 297,000 bpd, showing how the vast bulk – around 85% – of production is exported. The consumption figure was also up 7.1% on 2012, while production had increased 1.3%, illustrating one of the growing pressures on the sector – that of growing domestic demand for energy as Qatar’s economy and population take off. The country’s real GDP grew at double-digit rates in 2009, 2010 and 2011, according to QNB, slowing to a still-robust 6% in 2012 and 6.3% in 2013. Growth by the end of 2014 was estimated to be 6.5%. The population grew by 9% between November 2013 and November 2014, with the total number of inhabitants – nationals and expatriates combined – surging from 1.72m in 2010 to 2.24m in 2014.

Oil production is largely dominated by three main fields – Al Shaheen, Dukhan and Idd Al Sharqi, which according to the EIA account for 85% of total production. Other fields include Bul Hanine, Maydan Marjam, Al Khalij, Al Karkara and the most recent major find, Al Rayyan, discovered in 1994. The operators at the big three are Maersk, QP and Occidental, respectively, while Bul Hanine and Maydan Marjam are operated by QP, Al Khalij by Total and Al Rayyan by Occidental. Al Karkara is operated by Qatar Petroleum Development Company (Japan). A final field, El Bunduq, is operated jointly with the UAE through a joint venture, the Bunduq Oil Company. Dukhan is Qatar’s major onshore field and was also the first to be discovered, with oil first flowing at the end of 1939, making it one of the most long-lived fields in the world.

CRUDE CONTENT: In common with other Gulf oil and gas producers, Qatar’s fields are located in a prolific geological region of rich, carbonate reservoirs in Jurassic and Cretaceous limestone layers. The state produces three main crude oil streams, stretching from the heavier crude Al Shaheen blend to the lighter Qatar Land and Qatar Marine blends. Qatar Land also has slightly lower sulphur content than the other two.

Recent years have seen the state’s condensate production steadily increase, largely on the back of the expanding natural gas sector (see analysis), to now be some way ahead of crude oil production. This highlights the continuing importance of enhanced oil recovery (EOR) for Qatar’s crude oil production, along with other technological advances in boosting reservoir output. “We are using one of the largest offshore water floods by injecting 800,000 barrels of water per day into the Al Shaheen field,” Lewis Affleck, the managing director of Maersk Oil Qatar, told OBG. “We are also applying the Water Alternating Gas EOR technique, which alternates high-pressure gas injection with high-pressure water injection.” Major investment in R&D is one consequence of this, with Qatar also now home to some important research in this field (see analysis).

Naturally, the sector has also been affected by the decline in oil prices that began in 2014. Crude reached a peak of $114 a barrel in June and then nosedived – in February 2015 Brent Crude was retailing at $57 per barrel. What impact this will have on the oil segment in Qatar is the subject of debate. Many point to the long-term nature of investments in the sector, with oil price fluctuations in the short-term part of the calculation. However, wider international issues, such as a slowdown in economic growth in emerging markets, combined with factors such as the US becoming a net exporter, point to a longer-term decline in prices. This might lead to some consolidation of projects aimed at boosting the output and prolonging the life of more expensive and complex reservoirs.

The minister of economy and commerce, Sheikh Ahmed bin Jassim bin Mohamed Al Thani, said in January 2015 that the next budget, beginning in April, will be based on a lower crude price than the $65 per barrel that has been used for the past several years. There was some evidence that the steep drop in prices was having an impact when QP and Qatar Shell scrapped the planned $6.5bn Al Karaana petrochemicals plant recently on the grounds that it was “commercially unfeasible” in the current energy market. This followed the cancellation of QAPCO and IQ’s Al Sejeel petrochemicals project in September 2014.

GAS GIANT: BP figures show that Qatar had proven natural gas reserves of 871.5trn cu feet (tcf) at the end of 2013, some 13% of total global proven reserves and the third-largest in the world after Iran, with 1193 tcf, and Russia, with 1104 tcf. In terms of production, Qatar’s output of natural gas was 158.5bn cu metres (bcm) in 2013, 5.4% up on 2012. This gives a reserves-to-production ratio of 155, meaning Qatar’s reserves will last well into the middle of the 22nd century at current rates of production.

Domestic consumption of gas was 25.9 bcm in 2013, once again indicating the export-driven nature of the industry, with this figure representing only around 16% of total production. As with oil, however, domestic consumption of natural gas is growing; the 2013 figure was 10% up on 2012 and around double what it had been 10 years earlier, when domestic consumption had stood at 12.2 bcm. The bulk of domestic consumption takes place in electricity generation and desalination activity (see Utilities chapter).

One of the extraordinary features of Qatar’s gas reservoirs is that they are nearly all within the giant North Field. This is the Qatari section of the largest single non-associated gas deposit in the world, which stretches under the Gulf from the north-eastern shores of Qatar and continues into Iranian waters, where it is known as the South Pars Field. Covering an area of 9700 sq km, the International Energy Agency estimates the feature to contain a total of 1800 tcf of natural gas and 50bn barrels of condensates. Of the total area, the bulk – 6000 sq km – is in Qatari waters.

The field consists of four separate reservoir layers, with these narrowing towards Qatar, meaning that while extensive in surface area, the North Field is also shallower than the South Pars field. This has presented several challenges – and has led to some remarkable solutions – for extraction companies, who have broken records in horizontal drilling (see analysis). There are also concerns that too much extraction too quickly could damage overall reservoir pressure, which led to the government imposing a moratorium on further development in the field in 2005. As of April 2015 there was no sign that this moratorium would be lifted in the near future.

NEW PROSPECTS: Production may still increase, however, thanks to an offshore discovery by QP and Wintershall in Block 4 that was announced in March 2013. Furthermore, the $10.3bn Barzan Gas Project (BGP) is expected to help expand capacity. The discovery is not in a pre-Khuff exploration block but rather in the Khuff formation. Block 4N is located directly adjacent to the North Field, and is the first new discovery in 40 years. The EIA suggests the find may contain more than 2.5 tcf in recoverable reserves, with production of 200m-400m cu feet per day (cfpd) expected. GDF Suez – in an EPSA with PetroChina – has also made a discovery in Block 4 recently.

“The well tested positive for gas and condensates,” Arnaud Berthet, general manager at GDF Suez Exploration Qatar, told OBG. “We are now preparing for the appraisal campaign following the testing to improve our evaluation of the discovery, and are in discussions with QP regarding how to proceed.”

Shell is no longer carrying out drilling in the pre-Khuff regions offshore, a relatively unexplored area, after drilling in Block D and not finding anything. “When you drill in the pre-Khuff, it is hard to say anything with confidence, because we do not have the data. Qatar has given IOCs the opportunity to drill, and this can provide more definitive data,” Wael Sawan, the managing director and chairman of Qatar Shell, told OBG.

Several companies are currently carrying out testing on the four blocks around Qatar’s main offshore North Field deposit, while some have already moved beyond the survey phase. GDF Suez began exploratory work at Qatar’s Block 4 and its second well tested positive for gas and condensates. The firm is now looking at how to appraise the find with its partner, PetroChina, which has a 40% stake in the operation.

While Shell has already begun drilling in its designated area, disappointing results from its initial exploration led to speculation in the industry’s media that the global player could decide to relinquish its block. As it stands, surveys are scheduled to continue beyond 2015, with additional wells to be sunk if results indicate greater potential.

LOOKING TO THE FUTURE: In Block A Japan’s JX Nippon Oil and Gas Exploration Qatar was set to begin drilling offshore in the second half of 2014. China National Offshore Oil Corporation was also expected to embark on drilling work at the end of 2014, having announced its plans to sink a well of up to 5000 metres in Block BC, following several years of seismic studies. The well would mark Qatar’s deepest to date, although the results might not be known for some time.

The BGP began construction in 2011, and combines both onshore and offshore components in its design. A QP/ExxonMobil venture being developed and operated by RasGas, the BGP is a two-train operation, with three wellhead platforms in the North Field, which will supply some 1.4bn cfpd of natural gas via pipeline to onshore facilities at Ras Laffan Industrial City. These, in turn, will use the gas to produce a range of products, as well as directing it to domestic desalination and electricity projects. Local press reported Train 1 was 95% complete in September 2014, with first production due to start in 2015. Japan’s JGC is completing the onshore facilities, while South Korea’s Hyundai Heavy Industries is in charge of constructing the offshore parts of the project.

Several different outfits are also in charge of exploiting the natural gas reserves in the country’s North Field. The most recent entrant is the Dolphin Gas Project, operated by Dolphin Energy, a company headquartered in Abu Dhabi. Dolphin Energy is 51% owned by Mubadala, the investment arm of the Abu Dhabi government, with the remaining 49% divided equally between Total and Occidental.

IN THE PIPELINE: Dolphin’s wellhead platforms are located in the Khuff Zone of the North Field, with wet gas transported from these along 2.6bn-cfpd-capacity pipelines to a reprocessing plant at Ras Laffan. There, condensates, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), ethane and sulphur by-products are stripped out, with processed, sweet gas then sent on via another pipeline – at 364 km the longest subsea pipeline in the Middle East – to the Taweelah receiving facility in Abu Dhabi. From there, other pipelines deliver gas to Fujairah, on the Arabian Sea, and other destinations in the UAE and Oman. The export pipeline to Taweelah is connected to gas compressors at Ras Laffan that are currently being upgraded, a project aimed at boosting the pipeline’s current 2bn-cfpd-capacity and scheduled for completion in the first quarter of 2015.

Total is also involved in two projects adjacent to Dolphin in the North Field, Qatargas I and II. The French company has a 20% stake in the upstream of the first of these, which includes the field’s Bravo Block condensate production. Qatargas I has 22 production wells, which supply 1.6bn cfpd of dry gas from the field, while Qatargas II has 30 wells, and supplies 2.9bn cfpd of wet gas. Two other Qatargas fields are also currently in production, Qatargas III and IV, with these supplying 1.4bn cfpd each to onshore trains. The hub for all Qatargas offshore operations is the North Field Bravo complex, which operates Qatargas II’s platforms remotely using the latest technology.

ExxonMobil has also been active in the North Field for many years before the BGP, signing a DPSA with QP in 2000, and participating in the Qatargas I and II projects. The company is also involved in DPSAs for the Al Khaleej Gas Project and RasGas I, II and III. Shell is also a major participant in the North Field, with its giant GTL project, Pearl GTL – a joint venture with QP – supplied from there (see analysis). In addition, Shell is involved in the Qatargas IV project, with the Qatargas III and IV blocks lying adjacent to the Pearl GTL block in the North Field. Elsewhere in the country, small gas deposits are also present at the onshore Dukhan field and the offshore Idd Al Sharqi, Maydan Mahzam, Bul Hanine and Al Rayyan fields.

LEANING ON LNG: A large part of Qatar’s abundant natural gas supplies have for some years been channelled in the production of LNG. This has made the state the world’s largest LNG exporter – a major achievement since it only began this trade in 1997. BP statistics show that Qatar exported 105.6 bcm of LNG in 2013, three times that of its nearest rival, Malaysia, which shipped 33.8 bcm.

The LNG is currently exported from 14 different trains, while the BGP is due to provide pipeline gas for the domestic market on completion. These are divided between Qatargas and RasGas, each have seven, with four of Qatargas’ trains and two of RasGas’ known as super trains – the largest size in the world.

The first three Qatargas trains to become operational have a 10m tonnes per annum (tpa) total capacity, while trains four, five, six and seven each have a 7.8m-tpa capacity. This gives Qatargas a total LNG capacity of 41.2m tpa, making it the largest producer in the world.

RasGas, meanwhile, brought its first two trains online in 1999, with a 6.6m tpa total capacity. Further trains were added on an annual basis from 2004 to 2006, each with a 4.7m-tpa capacity, while the last two trains, each of 7.8m tpa, were brought on in 2009 and 2010. This gives RasGas a total capacity of 36.3m tpa, making it the world’s second-largest exporter of LNG, and likely securing Qatar’s position at the top of the global LNG industry for many years to come.

The LNG sector is highly integrated, too. Qatargas I has a fleet of 10 purpose-built LNG ships to transport its cargoes, while RasGas has a charter fleet of 27 vessels, including 12 large Q-Flex ships. RasGas’ ships are time chartered from various companies, and the company also use ships from Nakilat, which has the largest LNG fleet in the world, at a total of 54 vessels, 25 of which are wholly owned and the rest jointly. Nakilat’s fleet includes giant Q-Max carriers, which can carry 9.4m cu feet of LNG in a single cargo.

CENTRE OF TRADE: Around 80% of LNG cargoes head for Asia, according to a recent Standard Chartered Bank report. Originally, the US had been seen as a major potential market, but as that country ramped up its own production, trains have been shifted to Asian production. Japan and South Korea have long been the principal destinations in Asia, with the former seeing its imports of Qatari LNG surge in 2012 following the 2011 tsunami and the subsequent shutdown of much of the region’s nuclear industry.

This shift also caused a hike in LNG prices, which are now falling, as Japan reorganises its power sector. Prices have declined in tandem with the fall in global oil prices – much of Qatar’s LNG export earnings are indexed to these. A slowdown in demand from Asia has also had an effect, due to slower economic growth and the coming on-stream of Asia-Pacific LNG projects, in Papua New Guinea and Australia particularly.

LNG prices stood at around $10 per million British thermal units at the end of 2014, according to Oil Price.com, which was around half the peak in 2014.

Qatar is looking to diversify the number of applications for LNG. Recent months have seen moves to encourage its use as a fuel in transport, particularly for LNG carriers and other vessels. A memorandum of understanding on the promotion of this technology was signed by DNV GL and N-KOM in November 2014. At the same time, long-term demand looks likely to continue rising with global economic growth. “We believe that demand for gas is only going up, causing long-term confidence in the LNG market,” Sawan told OBG.

REFINED GOODS: The oldest of the state’s refineries is the QP Refinery at Mesaieed, which is 100% owned by QP. Starting life when it was established in 1958, it has since become a state-of-the-art plant with a 137,000 barrels per stream-day (bpsd) capacity. It can also refine 57,000 bpsd of condensates, and has the residue technology to upgrade low-value fuel oils.

A second refinery at Ras Laffan, Laffan Refinery 1 (LR-1), is 51% QP-owned, while ExxonMobil, Total, Idemitsu and Cosmo have 10% shares each, and Mitsui and Marubeni have 4.5% stakes. LR-1 uses the field condensates from Qatargas and RasGas, and has the capacity to process up to 146,000 bpsd of condensate feedstock. It also has production capacities of 61,000 bpsd of naptha, 52,000 bpsd of kerojet, 24,000 bpsd of gasoil and 9000 bpsd of LPG. Another refinery, Laffan Refinery 2 (LR-2), is currently being constructed adjacent to LR-1, with a targeted completion date of 2016. LR-2 will add 146,000 bpsd of capacity, bringing the site total to 292,000 bpsd. Gasal is also a key player in the downstream end, with the distribution company currently engaged in major expansion.

The hydrocarbons industry has also kept engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) firms busy in recent years. “The industry is extremely profitable for EPC companies. Given the amount of infrastructure in place, shutdowns and maintenance can be extremely viable sources of revenue given the margins in the energy industry,” Syed Ali Aghfar Rizvi, the country manager at Descon Engineering, told OBG.

OUTLOOK: The changes in QP’s administration that took place in 2014 have come alongside changes in the global oil and gas market that are likely to have repercussions for some time to come. A new phase is clearly now under way, with Qatar facing the task of maintaining the considerable volumes of gas necessary for its thriving export-oriented LNG industry, while also filling growing orders at home. A new wave of investment in the existing offshore facilities is required to meet these demands, given that the moratorium will likely stay in place. This may mean some important negotiations in the next few years as DPSAs come up for renewal. Meanwhile, declining prices will have an impact, as will the increasingly competitive nature of the global market. Yet Qatar is well equipped to deal with such challenges, given the size of its reserves, the long-term commitment of its international and local partners, its great financial reserves, political stability, and the depth of talent and expertise now in the state. Overseas expansion promises to continue, with joint ventures in Africa, North America and beyond.

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The Report: Qatar 2015

Energy chapter from The Report: Qatar 2015